Saturday’s contest between the Arkansas State Red Wolves (19-7, 10-3 Sun Belt) and Troy Trojans (16-9, 9-4 Sun Belt) going head-to-head at First National Bank Arena has a projected final score of 74-69 (based on our computer prediction) in favor of Arkansas State, who is listed as a small favorite by our model. The game will tip off at 8:00 PM ET on February 15.

According to our computer prediction, Troy is projected to cover the spread (5.5) versus Arkansas State. The two teams are projected to come in below the 144.5 over/under.

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Arkansas State vs. Troy Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, February 15, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• TV: ESPN2
• Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Jonesboro, Arkansas
• Venue: First National Bank Arena
• Line: Arkansas State -5.5
• Point total: 144.5
• Moneyline (to win): Arkansas State -230, Troy +188

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Arkansas State vs. Troy Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Arkansas State 74, Troy 69

Spread & Total Prediction for Arkansas State vs. Troy

• Pick ATS: Troy (+5.5)
• Pick OU: Under (144.5)

Arkansas State’s record against the spread this season is 15-10-0, while Troy’s is 13-10-0. The Red Wolves are 11-14-0 and the Trojans are 8-15-0 in terms of hitting the over. The two teams score an average of 152.2 points per game, 7.7 more points than this matchup’s total. Over the last 10 games, Arkansas State has a 9-1 record against the spread while going 8-2 overall. Troy has gone 5-5 against the spread and 6-4 overall in its last 10 matches.

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Arkansas State Performance Insights

• The Red Wolves’ +248 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 9.5 points per game) is a result of scoring 79.3 points per game (61st in college basketball) while giving up 69.8 per outing (117th in college basketball).
• Arkansas State is eighth in the nation at 37.3 rebounds per game. That’s 2.5 more than the 34.8 its opponents average.
• Arkansas State knocks down 9.2 three-pointers per game (54th in college basketball), 2.9 more than its opponents (6.3). It is shooting 32.5% from beyond the arc (263rd in college basketball) while allowing opponents to shoot 29.4%.
• The Red Wolves’ 96.9 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 148th in college basketball, and the 85.3 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 26th in college basketball.
• Arkansas State has committed 9.8 turnovers per game (43rd in college basketball play), 2.5 fewer than the 12.3 it forces on average (116th in college basketball).

Troy Performance Insights

• The Trojans have a +199 scoring differential, topping opponents by 7.9 points per game. They’re putting up 72.9 points per game, 218th in college basketball, and are giving up 65.0 per outing to rank 27th in college basketball.
• The 34.7 rebounds per game Troy accumulates rank 57th in the country, 6.6 more than the 28.1 its opponents grab.
• Troy makes 7.7 three-pointers per game (176th in college basketball), while its opponents have made 6.9 on average.
• Troy forces 13.5 turnovers per game (45th in college basketball) while committing 13.6 (337th in college basketball).

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