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The National Weather Service in Mobile expected an increased impact of potential Wednesday evening storms than first expected.

In a Wednesday morning update, the NWS indicated that confidence in a more significant severe weather outbreak has increased significantly overnight as trends have supported a higher potential for severe weather. As a result, an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has now been introduced for areas mainly north and west of I-65.

A slight risk continues for the remainder of the area.

“We have also introduced the potential for a few strong tornadoes (EF-2+) mainly across the enhanced risk area,” said NWS representative Brandon Black. “There is also the potential for localized flash flooding, mainly along the highway 84 corridor. The heavy rain threat will be highly dependent on if storms continue to follow one another over the same areas.

Round 1 of strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds up to 60 mph and tornadoes is expected Wednesday afternoon in Mississippi and west to northwest Alabama. Round 2, coming in Wednesday night, will include severe storms capable of damaging winds up to 60 mph and a couple of tornadoes will be possible, mainly around 9 p.m. through 1 a.m. west of Interstate Highway 65 (I-65) and 12 a.m. to 5 a.m. east of I-65.
The best chance for storms will be across interior southeastern Mississippi into far interior southwestern Alabama. The severe risk appears to diminish quickly as the storms progress eastward.
Moderate confidence exists for storms actually occurring; with ow confidence in how severe they will be. Depending on how round 1 progresses will likely determine how supportive the environment is of severe storms.

Localized heavy rainfall will be possible as storms train over the same area. Most of the area will receive 1 to 3 inches of rain; however, localized areas of 4 to 6 inches cannot be ruled out if storms train over the same area. Localized flash flooding would be possible if this were to occur, mainly around 4 p.m0 through 4 a.m. west of I-65 and 12 a.m. to 5 a.m. east of I-65.
The best chance for heavy rainfall will be across interior southwestern and south-central Alabama mainly along the highway 84 corridor. The agency has low confidence on where the heaviest rainfall will occur and how much. Any flash flooding concerns will likely be unknown until storms begin.

“We continue to monitor another severe threat Saturday night into Sunday morning,” Black said. “Confidence in this being another significant severe threat seems to be increasing, and a new 30% probability area has been added to our far northwestern Areas. A 15% area remains for the entire area.”